A comparative analysis of regional infection risk due to wastewater recontamination in the Mezquital Valley, Mexico.

Urban wastewater reuse for agriculture provides reliable nutrient-rich water, reduces water stress, and strengthens food systems. However, wastewater reuse also presents health risks and characterizing the spatial dynamics of wastewater can help optimize risk mitigation. We conducted comparative risk analysis of exposure to wastewater in irrigation canals, where we compared those exposed to a) treated vs. untreated wastewater, and b) wastewater upstream vs. downstream from communities in the Mezquital Valley. The canal system with treated wastewater was sampled prior to being treated, directly after treatment, as well as before and after it flowed through a community. Along the canal system that carried untreated wastewater, we sampled before and after a community. We quantified the concentrations of bacterial, protozoal, and viral pathogens in the wastewater. Pathogen concentration data were used to calculate measures of relative risk between sampling points. Wastewater treatment reduced predicted bacterial pathogen infection risk in post-treatment locations (RR = 0.73, 95 % CI 0.61, 0.87), with no evidence of similar reductions in Giardia or viral pathogens (RR = 1.02, 95 % CI 0.56, 1.86 and RR = 1.18, 95 % CI 0.70, 2.02 respectively). Although infection risk decreased further down the canals, infection risk increased for bacterial pathogens after our sentinel community (RR = 1.94, 95 % 1.34, 2.86). For Giardia and viral pathogens infection risk was elevated but not significantly. We found similar evidence for increases in risk when comparing the treated section of the canal system with a canal section whose wastewater was not treated, i.e., the risk benefits of wastewater treatment were lost after our sentinel community for bacteria (RR = 5.27 vs. 2.08 for sampling points before and after our sentinel community respectively) and for Giardia (RR = 6.98 vs. 3.35 respectively). The increase in risk after transit through communities could have resulted from local community recontamination of the treated wastewater stream.

Increasing transmission of dengue virus across ecologically diverse regions of Ecuador and associated risk factors.

The distribution and intensity of viral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, including dengue, have rapidly increased over the last century. Here, we study dengue virus (DENV) transmission across the ecologically and demographically distinct regions or Ecuador. We analyzed province-level age-stratified dengue incidence data from 2000-2019 using catalytic models to estimate the force of infection of DENV over eight decades. We found that provinces established endemic DENV transmission at different time periods. Coastal provinces with the largest and most connected cities had the earliest and highest increase in DENV transmission, starting around 1980 and continuing to the present. In contrast, remote and rural areas with reduced access, like the northern coast and the Amazon regions, experienced a rise in DENV transmission and endemicity only in the last 10 to 20 years. The newly introduced chikungunya and Zika viruses have age-specific distributions of hospital-seeking cases consistent with recent emergence across all provinces. To evaluate factors associated with geographic differences in DENV transmission potential, we modeled DENV vector risk using 11,693 Aedes aegypti presence points to the resolution of 1 hectare. In total, 56% of the population of Ecuador, including in provinces identified as having increasing DENV transmission in our models, live in areas with high risk of Aedes aegypti, with population size, trash collection, elevation, and access to water as important determinants. Our investigation serves as a case study of the changes driving the expansion of DENV and other arboviruses globally and suggest that control efforts should be expanded to semi-urban and rural areas and to historically isolated regions to counteract increasing dengue outbreaks.

Correlates of maternal depression, anxiety and functioning across an urban-rural gradient in northern Ecuador.

Maternal depression remains under characterised in many low- and middle-income countries, especially in rural settings. We aimed to describe maternal depression and anxiety symptoms in rural and urban communities in northern Ecuador and to identify socioeconomic and demographic factors associated with these symptoms. Data from 508 mothers participating in a longitudinal cohort study were included. Depression and anxiety symptoms were assessed using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist (HSCL-25), and maternal psychological functioning was assessed using a checklist of daily activities. Tobit regression models were used to examine associations with sociodemographic variables and urbanicity. The median HSCL-25 score was 1.2 (IQR: 0.4) and 14% of women scored above the threshold for clinically relevant symptoms. Rural women reported similar food insecurity, less education, younger age of first pregnancy, and lower socio-economic status compared to their urban counterparts. After adjusting for these factors, rural women reported lower HSCL-25 scores compared to women lin urban areas (ß = -0.48, 95%CI:0.65, -0.31). Rural residence was also associated with lower depression and anxiety HSCL-25 sub-scale scores, and similar levels of maternal functioning, compared to urban residence. Our results suggest that both household and community-level factors are risk factors for maternal depression and anxiety in this context.

Distribution of blaCTX-M-gene variants in E. coli from different origins in Ecuador.

The increasing abundance of extended spectrum (ß-lactamase (ESBL) genes in E. coli, and other commensal and pathogenic bacteria, endangers the utility of third or more recent generation cephalosporins, which are major tools for fighting deadly infections. The role of domestic animals in the transmission of ESBL carrying bacteria has been recognized, especially in low- and middle-income countries, however the horizontal gene transfer of these genes is difficult to assess. Here we investigate blaCTX-M gene diversity (and flanking nucleotide sequences) in E. coli from chicken and humans, in an Ecuadorian rural community and from chickens in another location in Ecuador. The blaCTX-M associated sequences in isolates from humans and chickens in the same remote community showed greater similarity than those found in E. coli in a chicken industrial operation 200 km away. Our study may provide evidence of blaCTX-M transfer between chickens and humans in the community.

Multiscalar Evaluation of the Water Distribution System and Diarrheal Disease Risk in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Despite growing urbanization, our understanding of the impacts of water and sanitation on human health has largely come from studies in rural sectors. To this end, we collected data at both regional (water quality measures from water treatment systems) and community (cross-sectional surveys) scales to examine determinants of enteric pathogen infection and diarrheal disease among infants in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Regionally, the Legedadi water treatment plant had significantly lower heterotrophic plate counts, total coliform counts, and fecal coliform counts compared with the Gefersa water treatment plant. The number of pathogen types in infant stool also differed by plant. Decreases in chlorine levels and increases in the relative abundance of Gammaproteobacteria with distance from treatment plants suggest a compromised water distribution system. In communities, infants in households that obtained water from yard pipes or public taps had significantly lower odds of diarrhea compared to households that had water piped into their dwellings (OR = 0.35, 95% CI 0.16, 0.76, and OR = 0.39, 95% CI 0.15, 1.00, respectively). Similarly, infants in households that boiled or filtered water had significantly lower odds of diarrhea compared to households that did not treat water (OR = 0.40, 95% CI 0.19, 0.86 and OR = 0.23, 95% CI 0.06, 0.84, respectively). Integrating multiscalar data better informs the health impacts of water in urban settings.

The biting rate of Aedes aegypti and its variability: A systematic review (1970-2022).

BACKGROUND: Transmission models have a long history in the study of mosquito-borne disease dynamics. The mosquito biting rate (MBR) is an important parameter in these models, however, estimating its value empirically is complex. Modeling studies obtain biting rate values from various types of studies, each of them having its strengths and limitations. Thus, understanding these study designs and the factors that contribute to MBR estimates and their variability is an important step towards standardizing these estimates. We do this for an important arbovirus vector Aedes aegypti. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We perform a systematic review using search terms such as 'biting rate' and 'biting frequency' combined with 'Aedes aegypti' ('Ae. aegypti' or 'A. aegypti'). We screened 3,201 articles from PubMed and ProQuest databases, of which 21 met our inclusion criteria. Two broader types of studies are identified: human landing catch (HLC) studies and multiple feeding studies. We analyze the biting rate data provided as well as the methodologies used in these studies to characterize the variability of these estimates across temporal, spatial, and environmental factors and to identify the strengths and limitations of existing methodologies. Based on these analyses, we present two approaches to estimate population mean per mosquito biting rate: one that combines studies estimating the number of bites taken per gonotrophic cycle and the gonotrophic cycle duration, and a second that uses data from histological studies. Based on one histological study dataset, we estimate biting rates of Ae. aegypti (0.41 and 0.35 bite/mosquito-day in Thailand and Puerto Rico, respectively). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our review reinforces the importance of engaging with vector biology when using mosquito biting rate data in transmission modeling studies. For Ae. aegypti, this includes understanding the variation of the gonotrophic cycle duration and the number of bites per gonotrophic cycle, as well as recognizing the potential for spatial and temporal variability. To address these variabilities, we advocate for site-specific data and the development of a standardized approach to estimate the biting rate.

Increasing transmission of dengue virus across ecologically diverse regions of Ecuador and associated risk factors.

The distribution and intensity of viral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, including dengue, have rapidly increased over the last century. Ecuador is an interesting country to study drivers of dengue virus (DENV) transmission given it has multiple ecologically and demographically distinct regions. Here, we analyze province-level age-stratified dengue prevalence data from 2000-2019 using catalytic models to estimate the force of infection of DENV over eight decades and across provinces in Ecuador. We found that provinces established endemic DENV transmission at different time periods. Coastal provinces with the largest and most connected cities had the earliest and highest increase in DENV transmission, starting around 1980 and continuing to the present. In contrast, remote and rural areas with reduced access, like the northern coast and the Amazon regions, experienced a rise in DENV transmission and endemicity only in the last 10 to 20 years. The newly introduced chikungunya and Zika viruses have distinct age-specific prevalence distributions consistent with recent emergence across all provinces. We evaluated factors to the resolution of 1 hectare associated with geographic differences in vector suitability and arbovirus disease in the last 10 years by modeling 11,693 A aegypti presence points and 73,550 arbovirus cases. In total, 56% of the population of Ecuador lives in areas with high risk of Aedes aegypti. Most suitable provinces had hotspots for arbovirus disease risk, with population size, elevation, sewage connection, trash collection, and access to water as important determinants. Our investigation serves as a case study of the changes driving the expansion of DENV and other arboviruses globally and suggest that control efforts should be expanded to semi-urban and rural areas and to historically isolated regions to counteract increasing dengue outbreaks.

Characterizing dengue transmission in rural areas: A systematic review.

Dengue has historically been considered an urban disease associated with dense human populations and the built environment. Recently, studies suggest increasing dengue virus (DENV) transmission in rural populations. It is unclear whether these reports reflect recent spread into rural areas or ongoing transmission that was previously unnoticed, and what mechanisms are driving this rural transmission. We conducted a systematic review to synthesize research on dengue in rural areas and apply this knowledge to summarize aspects of rurality used in current epidemiological studies of DENV transmission given changing and mixed environments. We described how authors defined rurality and how they defined mechanisms for rural dengue transmission. We systematically searched PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase for articles evaluating dengue prevalence or cumulative incidence in rural areas. A total of 106 articles published between 1958 and 2021 met our inclusion criteria. Overall, 56% (n = 22) of the 48 estimates that compared urban and rural settings reported rural dengue incidence as being as high or higher than in urban locations. In some rural areas, the force of infection appears to be increasing over time, as measured by increasing seroprevalence in children and thus likely decreasing age of first infection, suggesting that rural dengue transmission may be a relatively recent phenomenon. Authors characterized rural locations by many different factors, including population density and size, environmental and land use characteristics, and by comparing their context to urban areas. Hypothesized mechanisms for rural dengue transmission included travel, population size, urban infrastructure, vector and environmental factors, among other mechanisms. Strengthening our understanding of the relationship between rurality and dengue will require a more nuanced definition of rurality from the perspective of DENV transmission. Future studies should focus on characterizing details of study locations based on their environmental features, exposure histories, and movement dynamics to identify characteristics that may influence dengue transmission.

Trade-off Between Quarantine Length and Compliance to Optimize COVID-19 Control.

BACKGROUND: Guidance on COVID-19 quarantine duration is often based on the maximum observed incubation periods assuming perfect compliance. However, the impact of longer quarantines may be subject to diminishing returns; the largest benefits of quarantine occur over the first few days. Additionally, the financial and psychological burdens of quarantine may motivate increases in noncompliance behavior. METHODS: We use a deterministic transmission model to identify the optimal length of quarantine to minimize transmission. We modeled the relation between noncompliance behavior and disease risk using a time-varying function of leaving quarantine based on studies from the literature. RESULTS: The first few days in quarantine were more crucial to control the spread of COVID-19; even when compliance is high, a 10-day quarantine was as effective in lowering transmission as a 14-day quarantine; under certain noncompliance scenarios a 5-day quarantine may become nearly protective as 14-day quarantine. CONCLUSION: Data to characterize compliance dynamics will help select optimal quarantine strategies that balance the trade-offs between social forces governing behavior and transmission dynamics.

Validity of Self-Reported Mosquito Bites to Assess Household Mosquito Abundance in Six Communities of Esmeraldas Province, Ecuador.

Mosquito-borne diseases are a global burden; however, current methods of evaluating human-mosquito contact rates are expensive and time consuming. Validated surveys of self-reported mosquito bites may be an inexpensive way to determine mosquito presence and bite exposure level in an area, but this remains untested. In this study, a survey of self-reported mosquito bites was validated against household mosquito abundance from six communities in Esmeraldas, Ecuador. From February 2021 to July 2022, households were interviewed monthly, and five questions were used to ask participants how often they were bitten by mosquitoes at different times during the day. At the same time, adult mosquitoes were collected using a Prokopack aspirator. Species were identified and counted. Survey responses were compared with the total number of mosquitoes found in the home using negative binomial regression. More frequent self-reported mosquito bites were significantly associated with higher numbers of collected adult mosquitoes. These associations were driven by the prevalence of the dominant genera, Culex. These results suggest that surveys of perceived mosquito bites relate to actual mosquito presence, making them a potentially useful tool for determining the impact of vector-control interventions on community perceptions of risk but less useful for assessing the risk of nondominant species such as Aedes aegypti. Further work is needed to examine the robustness of these results in other contexts.

Long-term projections of the impacts of warming temperatures on Zika and dengue risk in four Brazilian cities using a temperature-dependent basic reproduction number.

For vector-borne diseases the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text], a measure of a disease's epidemic potential, is highly temperature-dependent. Recent work characterizing these temperature dependencies has highlighted how climate change may impact geographic disease spread. We extend this prior work by examining how newly emerging diseases, like Zika, will be impacted by specific future climate change scenarios in four diverse regions of Brazil, a country that has been profoundly impacted by Zika. We estimated a [Formula: see text], derived from a compartmental transmission model, characterizing Zika (and, for comparison, dengue) transmission potential as a function of temperature-dependent biological parameters specific to Aedes aegypti. We obtained historical temperature data for the five-year period 2015-2019 and projections for 2045-2049 by fitting cubic spline interpolations to data from simulated atmospheric data provided by the CMIP-6 project (specifically, generated by the GFDL-ESM4 model), which provides projections under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). These four SSP scenarios correspond to varying levels of climate change severity. We applied this approach to four Brazilian cities (Manaus, Recife, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo) that represent diverse climatic regions. Our model predicts that the [Formula: see text] for Zika peaks at 2.7 around 30°C, while for dengue it peaks at 6.8 around 31°C. We find that the epidemic potential of Zika will increase beyond current levels in Brazil in all of the climate scenarios. For Manaus, we predict that the annual [Formula: see text] range will increase from 2.1-2.5, to 2.3-2.7, for Recife we project an increase from 0.4-1.9 to 0.6-2.3, for Rio de Janeiro from 0-1.9 to 0-2.3, and for São Paulo from 0-0.3 to 0-0.7. As Zika immunity wanes and temperatures increase, there will be increasing epidemic potential and longer transmission seasons, especially in regions where transmission is currently marginal. Surveillance systems should be implemented and sustained for early detection.

Phylogenetic Analysis of Transmission Dynamics of Dengue in Large and Small Population Centers, Northern Ecuador.

Although dengue is typically considered an urban disease, rural communities are also at high risk. To clarify dynamics of dengue virus (DENV) transmission in settings with characteristics generally considered rural (e.g., lower population density, remoteness), we conducted a phylogenetic analysis in 6 communities in northwestern Ecuador. DENV RNA was detected by PCR in 121/488 serum samples collected from febrile case-patients during 2019-2021. Phylogenetic analysis of 27 samples from Ecuador and other countries in South America confirmed that DENV-1 circulated during May 2019-March 2020 and DENV-2 circulated during December 2020-July 2021. Combining locality and isolation dates, we found strong evidence that DENV entered Ecuador through the northern province of Esmeraldas. Phylogenetic patterns suggest that, within this province, communities with larger populations and commercial centers were more often the source of DENV but that smaller, remote communities also play a role in regional transmission dynamics.

Virus Emissions from Toilet Flushing: Comparing Urine-Diverting to Mix Flush Toilets.

High levels of viruses can be found in human excrement from infected individuals, a fraction of which can be emitted from toilet flushing. Unlike the common mix flush toilet (MFT), the urine-diverting toilet (UDT) separates urine from the toilet water. Specific focus on urine-associated viruses is needed because the UDT can emit different levels of urine-associated and fecal-borne viruses and urine has different properties compared to feces that can affect emission levels (e.g., protein content). In this work, we quantified emission levels of surrogate bacteriophages for urine-associated and fecal-borne viruses, MS2 and T3, from flushing a UDT and an MFT, with and without protein in the water. Emission levels of viruses in the water of the UDT were lower than that of the MFT by up to 1.2-log10 and 1.3-log10 for T3 and MS2, respectively. If urine is completely diverted in the UDT, virus emissions can be reduced by up to 4-log10. Based on these results and typical levels in urine and feces, we estimate that up to 107 and 108 gene copies of human viruses per flush can be released from the UDT and MFT, respectively. Lower emissions observed with the UDT suggest reduced exposure to viruses from flushing the UDT.

Stool biomarkers as measures of enteric pathogen infection in infants from Addis Ababa informal settlements.

Frequent enteric infections in children may be an important cause of growth faltering; however, we do not fully understand the mechanisms by which pathogen infections and the physiological responses to these infections result in poorer growth. Commonly used protein fecal biomarkers (anti-alpha trypsin, neopterin, and myeloperoxidase) provide broad immunological information on an inflammatory response; however, they do not provide information on non-immune processes (e.g., gut integrity) that may be important indicators of chronic end states such as environmental enteric dysfunction (EED). To explore how additional biomarkers will better inform which physiological pathways (both immune and non-immune) are impacted by pathogen exposure we added to the traditional panel of 3 protein fecal biomarkers 4 novel fecal mRNA transcript biomarkers (sucrase isomaltase, caudal homeobox 1, S100A8, and mucin 12) and analyzed stool samples from infants living in informal settlements in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. To test how this expanded biomarker panel captures distinct pathogen exposure processes we used two different scoring systems. First, we used a theory-based approach to assign each biomarker to specific physiological attributes based on prior understanding of each biomarker. Second, we used data reduction methods to categorize biomarkers and then assign physiological attributes to those categories. We used linear models to examine the association between the derived biomarker scores (based on mRNA and protein levels) and stool pathogen gene counts to determine pathogen specific effects on gut physiology and immune responses. Inflammation scores were positively associated with Shigella and enteropathogenic E.Coli (EPEC) infection, while gut integrity scores were negatively associated with Shigella, EPEC and, shigatoxigenic E.coli (STEC) infection. Our expanded panel of biomarkers hold promise as tools to measure systemic outcomes of enteric pathogen infection. mRNA biomarkers complement established protein biomarkers by providing important cell-specific physiological and immunological consequences of pathogen carriage that can lead to chronic end states such as EED.

Leveraging infectious disease models to interpret randomized controlled trials: Controlling enteric pathogen transmission through water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluate hypotheses in specific contexts and are often considered the gold standard of evidence for infectious disease interventions, but their results cannot immediately generalize to other contexts (e.g., different populations, interventions, or disease burdens). Mechanistic models are one approach to generalizing findings between contexts, but infectious disease transmission models (IDTMs) are not immediately suited for analyzing RCTs, since they often rely on time-series surveillance data. We developed an IDTM framework to explain relative risk outcomes of an infectious disease RCT and applied it to a water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) RCT. This model can generalize the RCT results to other contexts and conditions. We developed this compartmental IDTM framework to account for key WASH RCT factors: i) transmission across multiple environmental pathways, ii) multiple interventions applied individually and in combination, iii) adherence to interventions or preexisting conditions, and iv) the impact of individuals not enrolled in the study. We employed a hybrid sampling and estimation framework to obtain posterior estimates of mechanistic parameter sets consistent with empirical outcomes. We illustrated our model using WASH Benefits Bangladesh RCT data (n = 17,187). Our model reproduced reported diarrheal prevalence in this RCT. The baseline estimate of the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] for the control arm (1.10, 95% CrI: 1.07, 1.16) corresponded to an endemic prevalence of 9.5% (95% CrI: 7.4, 13.7%) in the absence of interventions or preexisting WASH conditions. No single pathway was likely able to sustain transmission: pathway-specific [Formula: see text] for water, fomites, and all other pathways were 0.42 (95% CrI: 0.03, 0.97), 0.20 (95% CrI: 0.02, 0.59), and 0.48 (95% CrI: 0.02, 0.94), respectively. An IDTM approach to evaluating RCTs can complement RCT analysis by providing a rigorous framework for generating data-driven hypotheses that explain trial findings, particularly unexpected null results, opening up existing data to deeper epidemiological understanding.

A Chikungunya Outbreak in a Dengue-endemic Region in Rural Northern Coastal Ecuador.

Dengue virus (DENV) reemerged in the Americas in the 1980s and 1990s, whereas chikungunya virus (CHIKV) emerged in 2014. Although CHIKV produced large epidemics from 2014 to 2017, dengue fever has been the prominent arboviral disease identified through passive surveillance, bringing to question the degree to which cases are misdiagnosed. To address this concern, we conducted an active household-based surveillance of arboviral-like illnesses in six rural and remote communities in northern coastal Ecuador from May 2019 to February 2020. Although passive surveillance conducted by the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health reported only DENV cases in the region, more than 70% of the arbovirus-like illnesses detected by active surveillance in our study were positive for CHIKV. These findings underline the need for active surveillance of arboviral infections with laboratory confirmation, especially in rural communities where arboviral illnesses are more likely to be underreported.

What is Global Health Equity? A Proposed Definition.

The term "global health equity" has become more visible in recent years, yet we were unable to find a formal definition of the term. Our Viewpoint addresses this gap by offering a discussion of this need and proposing a definition. We define global health equity as mutually beneficial and power-balanced partnerships and processes leading to equitable human and environmental health outcomes (which we refer to as "products") on a global scale. Equitable partnerships actively work against racism and supremacy. Such partnerships foster processes with these same dynamics; for example, sharing lead authorship responsibilities with meaningful roles for host country researchers to frame relevant questions and to provide context and interpretation for the research findings. Equitable products, such as access to technology and tailored delivery of interventions effective in the specific context, are the fruits of these partnerships and processes.

The importance of community during rapid development: The influence of social networks on acute gastrointestinal illness in rural Ecuador.

Social networks are often measured as conduits of infection. Our prior cross-sectional analyses found that denser social ties among individuals reduces transmission of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) in coastal Ecuador; social networks can describe both risk and protection. We extend findings to examine how social connectedness influences AGI longitudinally in Ecuador from 2007 to 2013, a time of rapid development, using a two-stage Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate multiple network effects. A larger community network of people to discuss important matters with was consistently protective against AGI over time, and a network defined by people passing time together became a stronger measure of risk, due to increasing population density and travel. These networks were interdependent: the joint effect of having a small passing time network and large important matters network reduced the odds of AGI over time (2007: OR 1.16 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.44), 2013: OR 0.56 (95% CI: 0.45, 0.71)); and synergistic: the people an individual passed time with became the people they discussed important matters with. Focus groups emphasized that with greater remoteness came greater community cohesion resulting in safer WASH practices. Social networks can enhance and reduce health differently as social infrastructure evolves, highlighting the importance of community-level factors in a period of rapid development.

Associations of bacterial enteropathogens with systemic inflammation, iron deficiency, and anemia in preschool-age children in southern Ghana.

Anemia remains a pervasive public health problem among preschool-age children in Ghana. Recent analyses have found that anemia in Ghanaian children, particularly in Southern regions, is largely attributable to infectious causes, rather than nutritional factors. Infections with enteropathogens can reduce iron absorption and increase systemic inflammation, but few studies have examined direct links between enteropathogens and anemia. This study investigated associations between detection of individual bacterial enteropathogens and systemic inflammation, iron deficiency, and anemia among 6- to 59-month-old children in Greater Accra, Ghana. Serum samples were analyzed from a cross-sectional sample of 262 children for concentrations of hemoglobin (Hb), biomarkers of systemic inflammation [C-reactive protein (CRP) and α-1-acid glycoprotein (AGP)], and biomarkers of iron status [serum ferritin (SF) and serum transferrin receptor (sTfR)]. Stool samples were analyzed for ten bacterial enteropathogens using qPCR. We estimated associations between presence of each enteropathogen and elevated systemic inflammation (CRP > 5 mg/L and AGP > 1 g/L), iron deficiency (SF < 12 µg/L and sTfR > 8.3 mg/L) and anemia (Hb < 110 g/L). Enteropathogens were detected in 87% of children's stool despite a low prevalence of diarrhea (6.5%). Almost half (46%) of children had anemia while one-quarter (24%) had iron deficiency (low SF). Despite finding no associations with illness symptoms, Campylobacter jejuni/coli detection was strongly associated with elevated CRP [Odds Ratio (95% CI): 3.49 (1.45, 8.41)] and elevated AGP [4.27 (1.85, 9.84)]. Of the pathogens examined, only enteroinvasive Escherichia coli/Shigella spp. (EIEC/Shigella) was associated with iron deficiency, and enteroaggregative Escherichia coli (EAEC) [1.69 (1.01, 2.84)] and EIEC/Shigella [2.34 (1.15, 4.76)] were associated with anemia. These results suggest that certain enteroinvasive pathogenic bacteria may contribute to child anemia. Reducing exposure to enteropathogens through improved water, sanitation, and hygiene practices may help reduce the burden of anemia in young Ghanaian children.

The role of time-varying viral shedding in modelling environmental surveillance for public health: revisiting the 2013 poliovirus outbreak in Israel.

Environmental pathogen surveillance is a sensitive tool that can detect early-stage outbreaks, and it is being used to track poliovirus and other pathogens. However, interpretation of longitudinal environmental surveillance signals is difficult because the relationship between infection incidence and viral load in wastewater depends on time-varying shedding intensity. We developed a mathematical model of time-varying poliovirus shedding intensity consistent with expert opinion across a range of immunization states. Incorporating this shedding model into an infectious disease transmission model, we analysed quantitative, polymerase chain reaction data from seven sites during the 2013 Israeli poliovirus outbreak. Compared to a constant shedding model, our time-varying shedding model estimated a slower peak (four weeks later), with more of the population reached by a vaccination campaign before infection and a lower cumulative incidence. We also estimated the population shed virus for an average of 29 days (95% CI 28-31), longer than expert opinion had suggested for a population that was purported to have received three or more inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) doses. One explanation is that IPV may not substantially affect shedding duration. Using realistic models of time-varying shedding coupled with longitudinal environmental surveillance may improve our understanding of outbreak dynamics of poliovirus, SARS-CoV-2, or other pathogens.